My Observations On The Egyptian Crisis (2011)

The protests were spontaneous and leaderless. It was caused by economic and political problems which Hosni Mubarak could not solve. The Egyptians drew inspiration from the Tunisian uprising which was very successful in ending another long and entrenched dictator in North Africa, Ben Ali. The spark for the revolution is a scene out of the Vietnam era. Remember the photos of the monk who set himself on fire? This time a young fruit vendor decided to make a social statement by setting himself on fire. It seemed to me like he started a fire that might consume the Arab and Muslim world in North Africa and Asia. When the revolution in Tunisia ended in expelling a dictator, western analysts are quick to alert all long time strongmen in the region about their fate. The trouble in Tunisia started in December 2010. Weeks later Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak might not escape his people’s wrath about his mismanagement.

I can’t ignore the comparisons between Egypt’s uprising now and the Philippines’ people power revolution in 1986. The direction and fuel for the uprising is coming from the people. There doesn’t seem to be one controlling political (or religious) group able to stir the momentum to their agenda. Although the former UN official in charge of nuclear weapons proliferation came home and is interested in standing before the protesters and speak to them. El Baradi is no Cory Aquino. The crowds don’t look up to him as a leader. It would be a shame if all the liberals and pro-democracy elements of this revolution is superseded by a religious autocrat as is the tradition in the region. The Egyptians involved in the revolution are very articulate and well educated. In Iran the same well educated throng buckled under the pressure of returning religious leaders. In the Philippines, the Roman Catholic leaders played a significant role in ousting the dictator but Catholic hierarchy has long ago shed the medieval ways of heavy handed participation in politics.